Thursday, January 17, 2019

Nifty Follows A Scripted Path - Comforting Situation

In the wee hours of last Monday, I had scripted a chart  for Nifty for the complete year 2019  in my last blog post. Idea was to test my understanding of the behavior of Indian equity market going forward. By doing so we will be able to gauge whether this understanding stands the test of time. At any juncture if we find Nifty deviating from the charted course, it will serve as an alarm bell and we can then carry out mid course correction.

So far in this week Nifty has done exactly as scripted. I had opined that Nifty will be range bound between 10500 and 11000. You can revisit my last blog post here Indian Equity Market View For Year 2019


In today's trading sessions, Nifty had reached level of 10930. If my script has to play out, tomorrow Nifty should be travelling southwards. Permabulls may please take note of this and try to be careful in tomorrow's trading session. Do not get carried away by the strong Nifty recovery in today's late afternoon trade from 10845 to 10930 level. Nifty finally closed today at 10905.

Why should Nifty fall tomorrow? It could be for myriads of reasons like Brexit woes, China slowing or market participants getting weighed down by domestic political risks. When the actual destabilizing news finally percolates down to retail investors, action would have already taken place in market. We will only be scrambling for cover. That is where my scripted chart will help you to be cautious. Keep referring to it for future guidance.

As per the strong form of Efficient Market Hypothesis, market is totally efficient with market prices quickly adjusting to reflect all types of information, both public and private(inside) information. This basically means that both technical and fundamental analysis of stock market is useless and investing/trading in such market is like throwing darts (random walk theory). With my script on Nifty's future path for the year 2019, I wish to debunk this theory.


Feedspot List For Global Top 100 Stock Blogs

With your blessings, I take the liberty to announce that this blog has been featured in global list of Top 100 Stock Blogs by Feedspot. It has given me immense pleasure and satisfaction and has filled me with dollops of josh to continue writing for you. I am truly humbled with this astounding honor.


No comments:

Post a Comment