Thursday, May 23, 2019

Working for India of 2024 - An Open Letter to PM

Most Respected Honourable Prime Minister,

Sweeping victory for BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha Elections!! Many many congratulations to all Indians living here and abroad!!

We Indians are congratulating ourselves for our electoral victory in 2019 parliamentary elections. More than BJP, we consider it as our personal victory.  We are overwhelmed with a sense of pure joy and happiness. We have been witness to this historic victory as stake holders. For millions of us, this auspicious day will stay in our memory as a daydream till our last breath. And you are the architect-in-chief for making this dream come true. We are utterly grateful to you for allowing us the pleasure of witnessing this historic day.

I know I will be branded as Modi Bhakt by our left leaning liberal friends and intelligentsia, who are well educated from elite institutions but use their education and intellect to pander to forces inimical to our national interest, culture and pride. As an average Indian I no longer care. On the contrary I will take this epithet of Modi Bhakt as a Badge of Honour, because then I will see myself as an ardent follower of the greatest nationalist, unifier, visionary, nation-builder and statesman of independent India. I know millions of Indians will echo these very sentiments.

However, the purpose of this open letter is not what has been summarized thus far. Intention is to bring to attention major national issues which an average Indian would like you to fast track and bring to fruition in next five years of your tenure as PM. These issues assume more relevance if India has to become a 5-trillion-dollar economy by 2024. These urgent issues are outlined as under:-

Uprooting Terror Infrastructure from South Asia.

We understand that terror is a very profitable industry for many powerful entities like global corporations, business houses and some nations. Terrorist activities are aimed at breaking up a nation and its resolve of maintaining sovereignty. This is multi-trillion dollar business for global corporations, which inter alia includes profiting from nations' war efforts through Arms' Sales, nations' massive reconstruction efforts after devastation from war, and claiming ownership of a weakened nations' natural resources. Hence we find various entities with seemingly divergent ideologies gang up to work towards the common purpose of terror. Most common example is that of communists (believing in no religion) giving support to Jihadis (extreme religious fundamentalists). Its money that makes the mare go!

In order to become a 5 trillion dollar economy from 2.7 trillion dollar present economy, we will need enormous foreign investment in India. For that we need to quickly dismantle the terror infrastructure and ecosystem in South Asia so that investors feel safe to invest heavily here. The following should be the focal points of  our action:-
  1. Destroy Ecosystem of Mughalistan. Concept of Mughalistan has been formalized by Pakistan through Mughalistan Research Institute in Bangladesh, funded jointly by ISI and DGFI (Director General Forces Intelligence, Bangladesh). Map released show that Pakistan and Bangladesh are planned to be connected through a corridor comprising J&K, Mewat, UP, Bihar, West Bengal and Assam. All Jihadi organisations, including Al Qaeda, LeT, JeM etc have given support for the creation of Mughalistan. If we have to prevent second partition of India, we need to act fast to destroy terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Eastern beach-head in Bangladesh. We need to start cleansing process from West Bengal which is fast becoming  part of the Eastern beach-head. Today this is far bigger danger and challenge than Naxal Movement.
  2. Identify and Neutralize Pak Deep State. Terror activities in South Asia are planned, funded and propagated by Pakistan deep state.We need to identify and target our efforts to decimate this machinery in totality. Global and regional cooperation in this endeavour should also be sought.
  3. Neutralize Naxal Movement. Districts under naxal influence should be freed and brought fully under Indian administrative control. For that the overground naxals who give ideological and administrative support, fund and arm the underground combat naxals have to be rounded up without any compunction. They are the actual perpetrators of terrorism and their extinction will automatically asphyxiate the naxal movement without a bullet being fired.
Fast Track Infrastructure for Full Utilization of Indus water Treaty

In 1960 we had entered into a lopsided Indus Water Treaty which is discriminatory to Indian interests. Be that as it may, now we need to urgently put in place such infrastructure which will help us to fully utilize water resources to the extent provisioned under the said treaty. This should get Top-Priority in infrastructure development to help our farmers in J&K, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi region.

Championing Cause to Free Baluchistan

Active international diplomacy should be undertaken to help Baluch attain independence.. World bodies like UN have to realize that there had been forced occupation of a free country called Baluchistan by Pak Army. Before the partition of Undivided India, Baluchistan was an independent country. That means Baluchistan was not part of Undivided India. After partition of Undivided India, Pakistan came into existence. Then how can Baluchistan be part of Pakistan!! 

Forced occupation of independent Baluchistan by Pak forces has escaped the attention of world opinion, media and regulatory bodies for past 70 years. This needs to be urgently corrected, and it is our moral obligation to bring this issue to international focus with all diplomatic might at our command. 

In this venture we can enlist the support of US and China. US should be happy with a free Baluchistan giving terror free access to Afghanistan. China should be made to realize that their Gwadar Port development will be best served in an independent Baluchistan - free from double crossing, blackmailing and terror tactics of Pakistan.

Internationalize Kashmir Issue 

Kashmir became integral part of India from the moment Instrument of Accession was signed by Maharaja of Kashmir. This irreversible process was followed as Rule of Partition by other princely states who became part of India. We should seek for vacation of our occupied territory with help of UN, if necessary.

Abolish Article 370 and 35A  

Article 370 & 35A is discriminatory to the population of J&K. They have right to equal opportunity as rest of India. It is dishonesty to say that J&K is an integral part of India if we are unable to provide full benefits of growing India to Kashmiris due to restrictions imposed by these dubious Articles.

Removal of Illegal Immigrants from India

Illegal immigrants pose both internal and external security threat. This is a non debatable point. If that is the case then we must address this important issue with all seriousness and sincerity so as to make India a safer place to live and do business. International community, especially US, would also support us in removing illegal immigrants from our soil. In any case, whatever is illegal cannot be tolerated at state level dispensation. That would tantamount to making mockery of  Law of the Land.

Proactive Steps to Make India a Manufacturing Hub

US-China trade war has thrown up a favourable situation for India to position itself as a prospective Manufacturing Hub in this region. 40 US companies have already exhibited their willingness to relocate to India. Sincere efforts should be made to attract more of these US companies to India by rolling out the proverbial red carpet. This will help generate employment and promote exports, thereby greatly boosting the economy

Debar Communists from Electoral Process

Communists believe that "Political power grows from the barrel of a Gun" Political parties which believe in this philosophy of terror should not be constitutionally allowed space in a democratic electoral process. In a democracy, accommodating divergent ideologies does not mean that an ideology which abhors democracy should also be allowed to participate in electoral process. It is akin to giving political space to sworn naxals and jihadis.

When we allow communists to take part in electoral process, we are basically allowing them opportunity to seize power democratically in some weak moment of our nation in future. Once in power, will the communists allow democratic institutions to function or turn the country into a communist regime? Aren't we being selfish when we are leaving scope for our future generations to be doomed to live under a communist regime after having ourselves enjoyed all the fruits of democracy?

This issue begs a national debate. Debarring communists does not mean excluding socialist ideology, which is perfectly compatible in a democratic country. If a communist party believes in democracy then why would it call itself communist? And if its stated ideology is communism then why is it taking part in a democratic process? Answer is simple -  to usurp power and turn this land into a communist country. Very frightening thought!

Anti Conversion Act

Mass religious conversions are an internal and external threat to our nation. These conversions have the power of causing internal strife in our society and can also be the cause for demand of secession from India. Hence it is of utmost importance that we pass an Anti Conversion Bill in Parliament at the earliest. Those opposing this Bill may contend that this Bill is not necessary as no mass conversion takes place in India. If  that is the case then they shouldn't be worried because the law will never be invoked. It will only act as a precautionary measure.

Correcting our Historical and Cultural Heritage

Strength of a nation lies in its cultural and historical pride. But if these facts are distorted by occupation forces over centuries, then that nation forever remains a weak and slavish nation. Our nation has been through this very situation and has not been unshackled so far. We need to employ the best experts to correct this anomaly without any guilt and shame.

Conclusion. I may have been inaccurate and off the mark in elucidating some points. However those points may be ignored and work in remaining points may please be undertaken with full gusto. If all points mentioned herein are of no consequence, I may please be excused for being naive.

Sincerely Yours,
Surajit Debnath

Jai Hind!

Sunday, January 20, 2019

US Equity Markets on Roll - How Long Before A Thud?

Keep your ears to the ground. This meteoric rise of US equity markets is unsustainable. It is bound to fall like a ton of bricks. Reason - the rise has been without proper foundation. It is as if some deep pocketed cartel has decided to off load its portfolio in equities and switch to some other market . To start doing that, the prices have been jacked up so that more investors join the band wagon, believing that bull market is intact, alive and kicking. That is far from the truth.

To understand what is happening in market, you will have to refer back to my last Sunday blog post here What's in Store for US Markets in 2019 ?

In my forecast for the month of January 2019, I had envisaged Dow going above 24000 level. But  not in such a fast and furious fashion!! I had also mentioned that Dow will reach 25000 by end January or February. But it seems that this market is in a tearing hurry to reach 25000.

What is causing concern to me is that the present rise is with low trading volume. That is typical of times when big players haul up prices as a part of process of distribution.

In any case we have the complete course chart of Dow for 2019.   Keep referring to it when in doubt. I will keep you posted of the developments. Traders should not think of buying at this point. For selling, let the current up-leg top out first, which I shall indicate in advance.

Remember it is still a bear market and 23000 in Dow can be easily achieved in coming days. So trade with adequate caution against upcoming volatility.

Thursday, January 17, 2019

Nifty Follows A Scripted Path - Comforting Situation

In the wee hours of last Monday, I had scripted a chart  for Nifty for the complete year 2019  in my last blog post. Idea was to test my understanding of the behavior of Indian equity market going forward. By doing so we will be able to gauge whether this understanding stands the test of time. At any juncture if we find Nifty deviating from the charted course, it will serve as an alarm bell and we can then carry out mid course correction.

So far in this week Nifty has done exactly as scripted. I had opined that Nifty will be range bound between 10500 and 11000. You can revisit my last blog post here Indian Equity Market View For Year 2019

In today's trading sessions, Nifty had reached level of 10930. If my script has to play out, tomorrow Nifty should be travelling southwards. Permabulls may please take note of this and try to be careful in tomorrow's trading session. Do not get carried away by the strong Nifty recovery in today's late afternoon trade from 10845 to 10930 level. Nifty finally closed today at 10905.

Why should Nifty fall tomorrow? It could be for myriads of reasons like Brexit woes, China slowing or market participants getting weighed down by domestic political risks. When the actual destabilizing news finally percolates down to retail investors, action would have already taken place in market. We will only be scrambling for cover. That is where my scripted chart will help you to be cautious. Keep referring to it for future guidance.

As per the strong form of Efficient Market Hypothesis, market is totally efficient with market prices quickly adjusting to reflect all types of information, both public and private(inside) information. This basically means that both technical and fundamental analysis of stock market is useless and investing/trading in such market is like throwing darts (random walk theory). With my script on Nifty's future path for the year 2019, I wish to debunk this theory.

Feedspot List For Global Top 100 Stock Blogs

With your blessings, I take the liberty to announce that this blog has been featured in global list of Top 100 Stock Blogs by Feedspot. It has given me immense pleasure and satisfaction and has filled me with dollops of josh to continue writing for you. I am truly humbled with this astounding honor.

Monday, January 14, 2019

Indian Equity Market View For Year 2019

Nifty index is the bellwether for Indian stock markets. Tracking Nifty will essentially give us insight into expected behavior of Indian equities. It is the beginning of year and hence is good time to track Nifty.

Nifty is presently in sideways move, displaying very low volatility. It is expected to remain within the range of 10500 to 11000 for the next couple of months. That is primarily due to the upcoming General Elections and market participants are in no mood to fully commit themselves either way.

What Happens After March

After March things will crystallize to a large extent as to whether present incumbent NDA has the upper hand in the upcoming elections or not. Let us analyze the two outcomes :-

  1.  NDA Has Upper Hand : In that case you will see Nifty drift down to 10300 level. That will be for accumulation purposes for big market players. In other words, if you find Nifty at 10300 level in April, you may safely assume that NDA is going to win the elections, since the big boys of the market think so. Hence you should also accumulate stocks if you find Nifty at 10300 level in April.
  2. NDA Does Not Have Upper Hand :  In such a scenario you will find Nifty racing to 11200 level on low volumes. This means that movers and shakers of markets are expecting NDA to lose the elections and hence are carrying out the process of distribution of stocks. Hence you should also sell major part of your portfolio if you find Nifty at 11200 level at the beginning of April.
What Happens after the Elections

In case NDA wins the elections you can expect Nifty to make new highs beyond its all time high of 11760. But in case NDA loses then it is going to be be one hell of a slide down into a bottomless pit. I would not be surprised if we see 7000 level in Nifty if NDA loses the upcoming General Elections.

Your Views

Do express your views on the subject in the Comments Section. With your views we may be able to understand this beast named equity markets better!!
In case you have any queries, do post them here and I shall be happy to get back to you. Watch this space for I shall be updating you at appropriate moments as Nifty makes its moves going forward.

Happy trading and investing!

Sunday, January 13, 2019

What's in Store for US Markets in 2019 ?

Last week Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed just shy of 24000 . This gave Dow an impressive 2.6% gain from the start of year 2019.

What next is the the million dollar question that begs an answer. I am going to provide some insights which should answer this question.

Forecast for Next Week

Come Monday, DJIA should see a steep drop. It will be due to the patience of the market participants running out over Federal Shutdown. Thereafter there will be volatility for the week with DJIA visiting levels above 24000 and below 23000.

Forecast for Month of January

Month of January will present a good opportunity for traders to profit from going long from sub-23000 level. From this level there is excellent chance of profiting till the level of 25000. This may not be achieved fully in January, but certainly by February we can see 25000 in Dow.

Forecast For First Half 2019

The first half of 2019 will be spent in volatility with Dow between levels of 23000 and 25000. I would expect the bias in this yo-yo journey to be southwards, but this can said with certainty as the action unfolds. I am basically saying that Dow will be moving sideways for the first half of 2019 between the levels of 23000 and 25000. However, jubilant reactions to some unexpected good news may allow Dow to reach levels of 26000.

Forecast For Second Half 2019

Second half of 2019 will see either continuation of sideways movement with southwards bias or an effort to reclaim level of 27000. High probability is the former case of slow Southward Drift so as to be positioned for a good sell off by 2020 -2021.

Here the reason lies in the inversion of US Treasuries' Yield Curve of 2 year and 5 year maturities. Now market participants will be keenly watching the yield curve of 2 yr and 10 yr maturities which is presently flat with narrow yield difference of 17 basis points. This hints that yield curve of these papers has high probability to invert anytime in future.

Early Signals if Dow Movements were to Differ From Above Forecasts

Let us now list the various early signs that will tell us that Dow will behave differently from what I am predicting :--

  1. If Dow fails to reach 25000 level and violates 22000 level on closing basis, then we will see much lower levels in 2019.
  2. Alternatively, if Dow crosses above 27000 level on closing basis, then new highs will be made.
  3. If sideways movement takes place between levels of 22000 and 24000, then we will find Dow at lower levels than 22000 in 2019.
Seeking Views

I have charted the entire Dow movement for 2019. Anyone wishing to seek the detailed reasons for each of these forecasts is most welcome to do so in Comments Section and I shall be delighted to provide the reasons.

I shall also be updating you on weekly movements as and when appropriate. Your views will be highly appreciated by me and other readers. Your views may provide some new insights from which all of us may benefit.

Keep trading in 2019 with profit!