Indian Equity Market View For Year 2019

Nifty index is the bellwether for Indian stock markets. Tracking Nifty will essentially give us insight into expected behavior of Indian equities. It is the beginning of year and hence is good time to track Nifty.

Nifty is presently in sideways move, displaying very low volatility. It is expected to remain within the range of 10500 to 11000 for the next couple of months. That is primarily due to the upcoming General Elections and market participants are in no mood to fully commit themselves either way.

What Happens After March

After March things will crystallize to a large extent as to whether present incumbent NDA has the upper hand in the upcoming elections or not. Let us analyze the two outcomes :-

1.  NDA Has Upper Hand : In that case you will see Nifty drift down to 10300 level. That will be for accumulation purposes for big market players. In other words, if you find Nifty at 10300 level in April, you may safely assume that NDA is going to win the elections, since the big boys of the market think so. Hence you should also accumulate stocks if you find Nifty at 10300 level in April.
2. NDA Does Not Have Upper Hand :  In such a scenario you will find Nifty racing to 11200 level on low volumes. This means that movers and shakers of markets are expecting NDA to lose the elections and hence are carrying out the process of distribution of stocks. Hence you should also sell major part of your portfolio if you find Nifty at 11200 level at the beginning of April.

What Happens after the Elections

In case NDA wins the elections you can expect Nifty to make new highs beyond its all time high of 11760. But in case NDA loses then it is going to be be one hell of a slide down into a bottomless pit. I would not be surprised if we see 7000 level in Nifty if NDA loses the upcoming General Elections.

Your Views

Do express your views on the subject in the Comments Section. With your views we may be able to understand this beast named equity markets better!!

In case you have any queries, do post them here and I shall be happy to get back to you. Watch this space for I shall be updating you at appropriate moments as Nifty makes its moves going forward.

Happy trading and investing!