US Markets at Critical Juncture - What Happens Next?

US markets underwent further pain with Dow slipping 174 points in last trading session. This is serious damage to the index and has to be evaluated with full sincerity.

What does last closing in US markets indicate? Is it still safe to hold on to long positions? Let us try and get some sense of what is in store for the bulls.

Next trading session is very crucial to answering all these questions. For doing an honest analysis, let us consider the following scenarios :-

1. In next trading session if Dow closes near 17700, then long positions are absolutely safe and 18000 in Dow will be a reality.
2. If Dow closes near 17400, then we may see Dow slide down to 17000/17100 level. If this happens then we need to be patient and wait for a bounce. This dead cat bounce should take Dow to 17600 level where we should exit all our long positions.
3. If Dow closes near 17600 in next trading session, then we will have to wait for another trading day for either of the above mentioned points to happen.

The nub of the situation is that we will have to exit our long positions either at 17600 or 18000 in Dow, based on movement of Dow in trading sessions ahead as enumerated in preceding paragraph. So be calm and hold your horses!

Dow Makes a Comeback - Hold Your Long Positions

Yesterday US Markets witnessed strong buying. That helped Dow Jones gather 113 points to close at 17716. This is good news for all those eyeing for 18000 in Dow.

Buying was mostly spurred by oil making a strong showing. And strength in oil got rubbed on to the stock market.

Push in oil prices were witnessed right after Fed announced that the rate hike will not be scheduled for April. Further there was surprise fall in oil inventories. Grapevine was also in the market that soon there will be agreement on production freeze between major oil producing countries.

Whatever be the reason or clutch of reasons, stellar performance of oil ensured that bulls thundered on in US stock markets.

Today if we have positive close in US markets it will be further confirmation that 18000 in Dow is going to be achieved. 

So keep holding on to your long positions and good luck!

Dow Futures In Green - Will US Markets Open Strongly?

Yesterday Dow closed with a heavy fall. It closed 134 points down to register 17603 in the Index. A very ominous closing to put it bluntly.

However Dow Jones closed above 17600 and not below this psychological support level. That is significant as of now. This was elaborated by me in my previous post which you can access here. Till this support level is not violated by Dow on closing basis, we should retain our long positions.

As of publishing this post, European markets are in green and Dow Futures is indicating a positive opening in Dow today. We hope that Dow takes support from present closing and moves higher. The manner in which Dow rebounds will dictate our exit level.

Today oil is also on a rebound amid hopes of a production freeze. Let us watch how long this sunshine in global markets lasts.

Global Markets Sell Off - Dow Jones Not Yet In Sell Territory

Dow Jones is down to 17600. Is it time to worry for long positions held?. I do not think so

In fact it is at 17600 that Dow Jones should take support. If it does take support here then we can see 18000 in Dow.

But in case Dow slips below 18600 on closing basis then we will have to review our position. To be precise,  in case Dow closes below 17600 then wait for Dow to reach 17700 again and exit your long positions.

However as long as Dow closes above 17600 we need to keep our long positions till 18000 in Dow.

Indian markets dived deep into negative territory today. Nifty closed at 7603, down 156 points. That has made Nifty vulnerable to further downside.

But if tomorrow Nifty closes in green then we will have a chance of good bounce back in coming days. Nifty has to give a strong closing tomorrow if it has to reach 8000 in this run up. Hope Nifty closes above 7700 tomorrow!

It is a Steep Climb to 18000 - But Dow is Doing Fine

US markets seem to be taking some time to reach 18000 in Dow. After all it is a steep climb that has to be negotiated. But have no qualms, Dow Jones is right on track to reach 18000.

Moment we find any signal of reversal, you will be intimated. Be sure of that. So for now keep holding your long positions till Dow Jones reaches 18000. 

Manner in which Dow reaches 18000 will decide the fate of Dow after 18000.

As for Indian markets, Nifty closed in the green today after trading in tight range. However Nifty is racing ahead to make a breakout from the present trading range.

Today Nifty closed at 7759. Tomorrow RBI review meet will give the decision on rate cut and also give out their guidance going forward.

In case RBI gives 50 bps rate cut, then Nifty will surge ahead to make a break out from its present trading range. 

However if RBI announces only 25 bps rate cut then we will witness a drop in the markets. With 25 bps rate cut we will witness Nifty move sideways in the range of 7700 - 7400 for some time to come.