Worried About Earnings Season In US? - Banks Expected to be Culprits

If US markets fall in this earnings season, Banks will be leading the fall.
Banks are potential under-performers and this earnings season they could be the biggest drag to US stocks..

For economy to do well, its banking sector has to be at least on even keel, if not racing on full throttle. But with ultra low interest rate causing ripple effects on banks' balance sheets, results of banks can be anything but ugly. Dovish stance of Fed on future rate hikes as also sharp decline in oil prices have not helped..

So be ready to get jolted this earnings season by dismal results of US banks. Other positive corporate earnings may act as countervailing effect to banks' earnings for US stock market to absorb the shock.

However, today Dow should remain positive since oil is up along with gold. It seems investors are slowly tucking away proceeds to gold as a safe haven, just in case the stock market tumbles. That can only explain gold price rising with the stock market. And yes, Dow futures is also up.

Oil being up is definitely a positive for the stock market. So be ready to welcome Dow in green territory today.

Dow Experiences High Volatilty - Can It Attain 18000?

Very surprisingly Dow closed 20 points down in last trading session. It was more intriguing since all factors were pointing to a positive close.

For bulls, the closing tick of Dow was dampening since at the beginning of trade Dow was trading 150 points up. That means Dow dropped 170 points without any rhyme or reason.

Was it because of concerns over Alcoa reporting dismal earnings? And can Alcoa earnings outweigh rally in oil prices? Frankly I do not think so. Alcoa earnings cannot alter market sentiments so much that Dow sheds 170 points intra-day. It has to be simple profit booking at higher levels, with traders making themselves light at the very first excuse..

Volatility was such that Dow from day high of 17732 closed at day low of 17556, a drop of 176 points. That drop without any genuine reason only suggests that today Dow will give a positive close.

But if today Dow again closes in red, then we will have to re-calibrate our sell target downwards from 18000. In such a scenario we will have to square off our buy positions at 17600/17700 in Dow.

Bull Roar Resounding Across Global Markets - Will Dow Dash towards 18000?

Global markets are performing well for bulls. All asset classes are doing well, including gold and oil. That is a rare phenomenon.

US markets are also in pink of health. Belying all expert opinion, US markets have continuously and consistently performed for the last two months.

Since mid Feb2016, Dow Jones has made a V-shaped recovery and it is still going great guns. It has gathered almost 2300 points since mid Feb 2016 without any serious correction. That speaks volumes of the serious bull charge in US markets.

As of publishing this post. Dow has gathered steam and added 140 points to the index. That is splendid news for those who are keen to see 18000 in Dow.

And that is what I have been maintaining as target for Dow in this bull run. Check this out in my 30th March post here. 

If you are following this blog and trading, do post your views in the comments section of this post. I will love to hear from you. I am sure all my readers will benefit from your views

Fasten Your Seat Belts -India and China will be Main Drivers of Global Growth

IMF is about to revise its global projections of growth from 3.4% in 2016. Its going to be a downward revision. It is no rocket science to understand that this downward global growth projection will be due to  global slowdown in productivity, debt overhang, sluggish demand growth and you can go on and on.

At this point in time, everything that can be wrong is wrong with global economy. In this scenario the only beacon of hope for global growth is shining in India and China.

Conditions are more India leaning as the present Indian Govt is continuously making the right moves to drive growth. Mark Tully, ex-BBC correspondent in his book "No full stops in India" holds this very view.

This is what mark Tully in his book maintains : "The way changes are coming in Railways, Power sector, Defense Production and in governance and at the same time accompanied by the resentment of the old forces indicate that the process of change has begun albeit slowly but firmly and is going to be painful."

The only caveat is that Indian Govt should take immediate steps to quickly recover huge capital to the tune of Rs 4.4 trillion from willful defaulters of banks.

US Markets End Iffy - Should We Remain Undecided?

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) could not climb the wall of worry. This wall is erected around 17700 in Dow. In my last post I had mentioned how Dow needs to climb over 17700 wall to be able to reach 18000. In last trading session Dow made a high of 17695 and then dropped down to close at 17577.

Scenario No 3 as given in my last post has happened in trade. So we have to wait for another trading day to get a sense of which direction Dow is headed. More importantly, we have to find out when we need to exit our long positions.

All that has been discussed in my last post so just keep all conditions in mind. As of now there being no clear signal, we need to hold on to our long positions.