Thursday, April 14, 2016

Thrilling Race To 18000 in Dow - Will We Witness It Today?


US markets gave a captivating performance in last trading session. Dow rose from a day low of 17742 to a day high of 17918, finally settling down to close at 17908. That is as bullish as you can lay your fingers at!

There were a couple of compelling reasons for such a fascinating journey northwards in US equities. Most compelling reason for this bullish lift off was JP Morgan coming out with good results. While the street was expecting poor show from financial institutions, out came results of JP Morgan sweetly surprising market participants.  Bears were caught unawares and got painfully caught in a bear trap.

Well that seems almost history now. Dow Jones has marched majestically towards its psychological level of 18000. Now the most important question is - will Dow achieve 18000 in trade today? I think it will, although Dow should open flat. As of publishing this post, European markets are marginally up and Dow Futures is also slightly up. Oil after being in red has shown strength and entered into green territory, which is good news for bulls.


If Dow misses 18000 today, I am sure traders will take the index to this important level before going on weekend holiday.

But what after that? After Dow reaches this psychological level, we should be on a look-out for correction. So we must exit all our long positions in Dow. I must admit that Dow may go even higher than 18000 before correcting, but that will be taking high risk. I say so because 18000/18200 in Dow is a strong resistance zone. Keep watching !

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

What will Topple Markets - Crude, China or Cameron?

Global markets across Asia and Europe are in supreme bullish fever. Everywhere there is welcome green, and that too of deep hue. Dow Futures is 89 points up. But crude is down. which may prove to be a spoiler in trade today.

Judging from situation US markets should open with a gap up. After all it has to reach 18000 destination. Check it out in this blog post.

In this wonderful bull run starting mid Feb 2016, there has to come a time for meaningful correction. Traders will take some excuse or the other to book substantial profit.

Will that excuse be provided by Crude or China or even Cameron? We will intensively investigate and analyse that in my next blog post. So keep lookout for in-depth analysis of impending correction in US markets in this space.

Enjoy the Journey - Dow Is Squarely on Way to 18000

US markets ended last trading session with a strong close, with Dow closing 165 points higher.

Those who have been acting on my buying advice given in this blog, must be enjoying the ride in US markets.

Right from 17400 level in Dow, I have been pleading with my readers  to buy US markets since I could see that Dow Jones was headed to 18000. That is 600 Dow points on offer, which means that even if you had chosen the wrong scrip to buy, you would still be in  profit, albeit small.

I have continuously maintained through this blog that it is time for buying action. You can check out in this post on 30 March 2016.   And I continued exhorting my readers to buy US markets at every opportunity even after publishing this post on 30 March 2016.

Before this recommendation of buying, I had earlier advised my readers to buy in US markets when Dow was at 16500 and sell when Dow was at 17200. That is cool 700 points in Dow achieved in just 15 trading sessions. Check it out here.

I hope I am making my point. If you are here reading this blog and you are in US, then do profit from my recommendations. I am not asking you to blindly follow me. You can perform your own research to my recommendations, or take advice of experts you trust. After that arrive at a decision to whether follow my recommendations or not.

Whether you agree with my views or not, I would only request you to air your opinion in comments section of this blog. It will compel me to reconsider my views when you disagree. I am sure your views will be valuable to other readers also. Plus it will delight me to no end!

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Worried About Earnings Season In US? - Banks Expected to be Culprits

If US markets fall in this earnings season, Banks will be leading the fall.
Banks are potential under-performers and this earnings season they could be the biggest drag to US stocks..

For economy to do well, its banking sector has to be at least on even keel, if not racing on full throttle. But with ultra low interest rate causing ripple effects on banks' balance sheets, results of banks can be anything but ugly. Dovish stance of Fed on future rate hikes as also sharp decline in oil prices have not helped..

So be ready to get jolted this earnings season by dismal results of US banks. Other positive corporate earnings may act as countervailing effect to banks' earnings for US stock market to absorb the shock.

However, today Dow should remain positive since oil is up along with gold. It seems investors are slowly tucking away proceeds to gold as a safe haven, just in case the stock market tumbles. That can only explain gold price rising with the stock market. And yes, Dow futures is also up.

Oil being up is definitely a positive for the stock market. So be ready to welcome Dow in green territory today.

Dow Experiences High Volatilty - Can It Attain 18000?

Very surprisingly Dow closed 20 points down in last trading session. It was more intriguing since all factors were pointing to a positive close.

For bulls, the closing tick of Dow was dampening since at the beginning of trade Dow was trading 150 points up. That means Dow dropped 170 points without any rhyme or reason.

Was it because of concerns over Alcoa reporting dismal earnings? And can Alcoa earnings outweigh rally in oil prices? Frankly I do not think so. Alcoa earnings cannot alter market sentiments so much that Dow sheds 170 points intra-day. It has to be simple profit booking at higher levels, with traders making themselves light at the very first excuse..

Volatility was such that Dow from day high of 17732 closed at day low of 17556, a drop of 176 points. That drop without any genuine reason only suggests that today Dow will give a positive close.

But if today Dow again closes in red, then we will have to re-calibrate our sell target downwards from 18000. In such a scenario we will have to square off our buy positions at 17600/17700 in Dow.