Trump's Era : Target Real Enemy States, Not Russia

What is this hullabaloo about US official talking to Russian counterpart? What on earth is wrong in engaging with Russia? Is Russia an enemy state which is trying to wage war with US? Has  Russia made any attempt to invade US through conventional or proxy war? If not, then how is Russia perceived to be an enemy state for US wherein Russians are considered anathemas?

Let us analyze in detail the questions that have arisen here. But before that let's draw your attention to my last blog-post which analyzed the controversial decision of President Trump on Illegal Immigration and Travel Ban . You may like to dig out facts here in Trump's Era - Acts to Save Democracy For Future Generations

Russian Untouchability  

President Trump has rightfully declared that he wants to establish cordial relations with Russia. It takes courage as a US politician to go against long held popular bias and negative sentiments about Russia. Surely such intentions cannot be construed as a populist move!

It is high time to bust this myth about Russia being an enemy state to US. Consider the following myth busting facts and then form your own opinion :-

1. Russia is not USSR and we are not in Cold War Era. Today Russia is as much concerned about maintaining peace and harmony in the world as any other right minded democratic country. It has shown remarkable commitment to fight terror with commendable success.
2. On the contrary, NATO is Cold War Era outfit which needs urgent overhaul to meet the challenges of present day geo-political realities. It should throw out member countries with proven record of links with terrorist organizations. Time and again Russia has given enough proof to world, for NATO to act against its terror-linked member countries. But nobody cares! Now tell me, who is acting against world peace - Russia or Arms Lobby controlled NATO ?
3. Russia is just another democratic country, maybe with an extra dose of national pride and identity. But what is wrong with that? Open ended left liberal Democracy needs to evolve with time into something more meaningful that caters for national interest also. That is the only way forward for Democracy to survive. If not, we will soon find present democratic countries hurtling towards becoming chaotic regimes like those in Middle East and most of Africa.

Russia Vs Saudi Arabia

What is so democratic about Saudi Arabia that US loves? In the same vein, what is so undemocratic about Russia that US avoids like plague? Glance through the following revelations and decide for yourself :-

1. Both Saudi Arabia and Russia are separated from US by Atlantic Ocean and hence pose no geographical boundary threat. However, by propagating and funding Wahabi/Salafi ideology, Saudi Arabia has helped create many terrorist organizations/regimes. Wahabi/Salafi ideology is the most radical form of Islam known to mankind. By that yardstick Saudi Arabia should be anathema to US, but is its closest ally in Middle East. Russia has no such radical proclivity and yet is perceived as enemy state. Don't you find that hypocritical?
2. Russian and US scientists cooperate in many technological fields to make life on earth better for mankind. On the other hand, Saudi interaction with US has always been to find ways to expand its regional power through blackmail or machinations of Machiavellian dimensions.
3. Russia helps regimes in their fight against ISIS, as does US. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia provides clandestine financial, material and moral support to ISIS while condemning them with forked tongue.

Do you still want to fault President Trump for trying to initiate better relations with Russia? President Trump is trying to align democratic forces, without any bias. He does not carry any baggage of past hostilities and is genuinely trying to make America Great again. But that upsets very powerful vested interest groups who had earlier managed to corrupt previous US administrations, and we all know that. Ever wondered how ISIS and Clinton Foundation are both funded by Saudi regime? More on that some other time.

If you think differently from what has been said in preceding paragraphs, do pen down your thoughts in 'Comments' section and we shall discuss your point of view in the next blog-post. But if you agree, then do lend your support wholeheartedly to President Trump's efforts to make US safe, secure and Great again. That will help European nations to wake up and smell the coffee, thereby helping democracy survive. We owe at least that to our future generations!.

Trump's Era - Acts to Save Democracy For Future Generations

Trump policies and beliefs are being criticized and condemned through the length and breadth of US and the world. Protests continue till date and seems to be increasing by the day. Before you get swayed by the protests, ask yourself the following questions:

1. Why should anyone object to plans to stop illegal immigration from southern borders of US?
2. Why create furore over travel ban on seven countries, viz Libya, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Sudan, Yemen & Somalia?

Illegal Immigration 
Anything illegal should be immediately stopped. That is the Rule of Law- bedrock of any democracy. If President Trump is trying to stop illegal immigration, why should there be such massive resistance from US citizens? Are you in favor of illegal activities?Here President Trump is brave enough to risk his political career in order to uphold democratic values in the oldest democracy of the world.  You are invited to give your opinion on following views :-

1. There will always be vested interest groups to protest against Trump's plans to stop illegal immigration from Mexico. Please remember that Illegal Immigration is big business involving numerous agencies and mega bucks.
2. Illegal migrants fall easy prey to criminals. When they cannot find legal work, criminal organizations like drug mafia step in and provide work to these illegal migrants. Why should you allow conditions wherein criminal activities get boost in US?
3. Do not get swayed by what Press says. Get to the bottom of any policy. Is it advantageous to your safety and security or not? President Trump has taken a historic and bold decision to stop illegal immigration into US, unmindful of his own popularity and world opinion. Very few politicians on planet earth can exhibit such courage!

As for Press and world opinion, please discount them since they form part of interest group. If illegal immigration is such a virtue then seek answer to following :-

• Why did Italy sign numerous accords with Gaddafi's Libya to stop illegal migrants to reach Italy's shores? Even after realizing that Gaddafi's regime was committing horrendous human rights violations to the returned migrants, Italy still carried on returning illegal migrants to Libya and kept filling the coffers of Gaddafi with compensation. Where was free Press and world opinion then?
• Why couldn't Australia accept illegal migrants into their society? These migrants were just a handful, and yet Australian PM went ahead and convinced Obama to accept them into US society. In Australia these illegal migrants were isolated and kept in inhuman conditions in offshore islands. No free Press or world capital erupted in indignant protests.
• Why did UK embrace Brexit, which was primarily against open door immigration policy of EU? Can they now turn around and organize massive protests on the streets of London on issue of illegal migration from Mexico.
• Why did EU enter into deal with Turkey to absorb illegal migrants in lieu of money? Where is free press and world opinion on such double standards?

Do understand that every nation has to look after its own safety and security. President Trump is doing just that for US and has the courage to stick his neck out against  overwhelming world opinion and hostile press.

As for negative Press, please realize that mainstream Media is owned and controlled by big corporations and conglomerates. They have myriad economic and vested interests globally. You need to take their opinion with a pinch of salt and decide on issues based on national interest.

Travel Ban
President Trump has issued an executive order to temporarily ban travel from seven countries, subject to review after 90 days. Iran,Iraq, Sudan,Somalia,Syria, Libya & Yemen figure in this list of temporary travel ban. Looking at this list, can you put hand on your heart and say that this executive order is against national interest? You are invited to express your opinion to following views :-

1. Is US dumping ground for world migrants? If world opinion is so sharp on travel ban by President Trump, why hasn't any country come forward to accept these migrants? On the contrary EU agrees to pay 6bn Euros to Turkey to stop migrants from Arab countries entering EU.
2. Why migrants from these seven countries are insisting on crossing the Atlantic and landing on US soil? Closer home, they can seek refuge in affluent nations like Qatar(highest per capita income in world), Brunei(5th highest per capita income), Kuwait(6th highest per capita income), UAE(9th highest per capita income), Saudi Arabia(10th highest per capita income) and other oil rich gulf countries like Bahrain etc. US is just 14th on this list of per capita income of countries and yet there is such a do or die situation being painted for their temporary ban to US. 

US and other western democratic societies have evolved painstakingly over the decades with certain value system which is inherent and intrinsic to their behavioral pattern. These societal mores and customs have now become ingrained in their outlook to life and way of living, conforming to democratic values.

President Trump is simply trying to preserve these Western democratic societal values by imposing this travel ban. Consider the following thoughts, which are factual and are in no way a judgement on any societal values being right or wrong :-

• Migrants from these seven countries have a different value system ingrained in them over centuries. Democracy is not part of their way of life. Recently some had violently brought about regime change in the name of democracy but still failed to install democratic governments. Do you want these values to get imported to US society?
• Democracy does not mean only democratic rights without responsibilities. First responsibility in democracy is maintaining sovereignty and integrity of your nation. Nation state does not mean that there will be only one sect, or religion or ethnic group. People from these seven countries have been brought up to believe to fight for rights of only one community, with scant respect for anyone else. Their generations have struggled over years to bring down regimes primarily on sectarian lines. Do you want to be swamped by such value system in US society?
• Religion is basically a matter of faith between an individual and God. Religious places are meant to cater for facilitating this union between man and God. But religious places in Islam are fully integrated with politics of that country and remain in forefront of political discourse on daily basis. Are you ready to accept religion to interfere in US politics in times to come?

President Trump is taking all steps to save democracy in the last and oldest bastion of true democracy. European nations will wake up to do the same at some later date.

You may have different views on all that has been said above. Do give your valued comments with facts and reasoning. There maybe many aspects that I have overlooked. Do shed light on missed aspects and I will feature them in my next blogpost with your credits.
Do seek comments from your friends and family also, and let me know differing views or more details on the subject for better understanding of a complex issue.

Dow Reaches Milestone 20000

It was tantalizing moment when Dow Jones touched historic milestone of 20000 on Friday 06 Jan 2017. It was  a moment to celebrate, specially for me. Way back in Oct 2014 I had predicted this milestone in Dow while commenting  in a MarketWatch column. Dow was then at 16400 level.

My comment had elicited a response from a reader and I decided to start this blog to track Dow's journey to projected 20000. To get the drift, check out my first blog post Dance of Dow. 

You can also access the above referred MarketWatch column here. My comments can be viewed in the Comments section

Out of my four predictions on movement of Dow, three have so far come true. My fourth and last prediction is the most frightening. It is Dow's fall to 10000 from level of 20000.

What possibly can be reason for such a cataclysmic fall to 10000? You may find an answer to this in my earlier blog post

Bears Sharpening Daggers - US Markets in Danger of Bear Grip

Crude and  Brexit have already done their bit in shaking the markets. China still remains the elephant in the room.

Bored of Being Unemployed - For Traders Only, Investors Keep Out

As of this moment Dow is trading  at 17716, down114 points. Traders be ready to jump into trade as discussed below.

What we are going to discuss today is for traders' eyes only. Investors please do not try this risky strategy that I am going to discuss today. One has to be nimble footed and there is no room for fat fingers.

I will be giving Dow levels to trade. Scrips which are co-related with Dow movement can also be traded, keeping given Dow levels in view. I hope I am clear. If yes, let's trade ;-


Condition # 1

• If Dow falls down to 17400/17450, then buy.
• Sell your position when Dow bounces back to 17850/17900
• To square off this trade should not take more than a week.
• If this trade materializes then you stand to gain 400/500 Dow points in quick time.

Condition # 2

• If Dow does not breach today's low of 17700, then wait for right conditions for sell to develop.
• Dow is going to trade sideways, so sell will come if Dow takes bounce from 17700.
• I will let you know in advance when sell conditions develop.

By now you must be aware that I had predicted these volatile trade conditions on 15 Apr 2016, when I had recommended exiting long positions in Dow. For those who are visiting this page for the first time, you may like to read that post titled Bears Sharpening Daggers -US Markets in Danger of Bear Grip

Further I had mentioned in this post that 18000/18200 is selling zone in Dow and bears would like to ferociously defend this last known territory. In that post, I have also discussed about my apprehension of "Bull Trap", which seems to be turning out correct.

Today I am giving out this trade, mentioned in Condition # 1 above, only for traders. From 15 April 2016 onward we have been unemployed as mentioned in my earlier post Out of Work But Thankfully Out of Danger - US Markets Dive. 

I am reminded of the cliche "Better safe than sorry". 

Japan Unsettles Global Markets - Havoc Spreads

Bank of Japan announced it's monetary policy today -  that announcement brought tsunami in local and global markets. What did Bank of Japan(BoJ) do to unsettle global markets so much that bulls had no place to hide? Long trades were decimated in all markets from Asia to Europe to America.

In Japanese markets there was bloodbath with Nikkie225  losing 624 points, down 3.6%. So what did Bank of Japan do in it's policy announcement that horrified the investor community and made them dump everything in sight? Bank of Japan took following monetary policy decisions:-

1. BoJ kept its Deposit Rate unchanged at -0.1%.
2. BoJ maintained it's Asset Purchase target at 80 trillion Yen (USD 738 billion as of current conversion rate). 
3. It gave some relief to quake hit areas by offering zero interest rate loans to those areas.

Result of BoJ Inaction: 

After the announcement by BoJ, Yen roared into super-drive and strengthened from 111.88 to 108 against US Dollar. Presently it is trading at 108.5 as of going to press. 

Japanese economy is export oriented and hence Yen gaining so much strength against US dollar means that export of  Japanese companies will no longer be competitive. That will directly hit the top line of companies, finally effecting their bottom line.

What was wrong with BoJ decision?

Will someone please tell me what was so terribly wrong with BoJ decision. It basically did not alter anything from what existed since February 2016. Maybe it was scared to shake the equilibrium in the market as it existed. And look what it achieved - just the opposite!.

Why did BoJ keep rates unaltered?

BoJ thought not to change anything because it got scared of consequences. When it decreased Deposit Rate from +1% to - 1% last February, a sharp drop occurred in stock prices. This time around it did not want to take the blame of upsetting the market. And yet it did!

What did market want from BoJ?

We live in bizarre times. Negative deposit rates mean that if you deposit money with Central Bank, you will have to pay for it and not get paid.. 

Did market participants want further cut in deposit rates? I don't think so. That would have been disastrous for Yen- Dollar trade. Japanese exports would have got further hit.

Did market participants want BoJ to increase deposit rate to pre-February rate of +1% ? That would have effected liquidity. Entire exercise of negative rates was meant to spur growth for Japanese economy so that it can come out of decade long stagnation.

Maybe market participants wanted BoJ to decrease the borrowing rates to negative territory. That would mean that you get paid for taking loan from Central bank. Point to ponder!

Illogical Market Reaction

Japanese companies are effected and so is Japanese economy. Economy will shrink and deflation will take roots. But that has been the state of this third largest economy of the world for nearly two decades. How does that effect global economy?

Global economy has been chugging along despite Japanese stagflation for years. What has materially changed in global economy with today's inaction of BoJ ? Then why such a violent reaction in global markets to BoJ decision? I have no answer. If anyone reading this can provide an answer, we all will get educated. Hit the comment button at the bottom of this post freely.

As of now Dow is trading 58 points down. US market participants have reacted more maturely to news from Japan. May be it will make rest of the world think and act logically tomorrow.

Sun is finally setting in the land of rising sun. That is a reality and we have to come to terms with it - earlier the better.