Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Hear Bulls Roar - Dow Positioned to Break New Ground?

Bears running for cover! And there is none.

From  Asia, Europe right up to America, there is no place for bears to hide. Everywhere bulls are in full control. Markets are in all shades of green, but green all the same.

Oil is up by 0.5% - and surprisingly enough Gold is also up. Bulls are running amok and have inadvertently stepped into gold bastion. But once there by default, they are piling up bullion. Someone please explain more rationally!!

Yesterday Dow recovered form day low of 17848 and closed at 18004, after making a high of 18010. This means that Dow swung a neat 62 points from day low to reach its high. All this was done in gloomy and uncertain situation of oil plunge. Very creditable!

Feeling Left Out of the Celebrations?

Today  Dow has opened in green at 18014 and is at present up by 37 points. But we are out of work, isn't it? That is because I told you to book profit when Dow at 17900/17950 as per my earlier post.

Snippets from that post   Bears Sharpening Daggers - US Markets in Danger of Bear Grip
"Bears are gleefully whetting their hatchets and tomahawks, waiting for markets to open. So the wise thing to do would be to square off all long positions between 17900/17950 in Dow.

I agree that you would feel cheated if Dow was to surge northwards, but it is better to take profits off the table. Remember we had built long positions as per my advice at 17400 in Dow. If you take profit at 17900 you still would have accrued 500 points in Dow.
Massive resistance in Dow Jones exits at it's long term selling zone of 18000/18200. No need to take extra risk in hope of collecting 100 Dow points more, with dark clouds gathering on global stage"

I still maintain this view that there is no point in sticking one's neck out when Dow is in its long term selling zone of 18000/18200. Bears by all means will defend this last territory. Once out of this territory, Dow will be breaking new grounds - "where no man has ever been before!". All time high of Dow is 18351.

What we are witnessing now may be some sort of trap being laid for bulls. I had mentioned it in a post last Saturday. Sample the snippets from the post How will this Sunday be - Black or Grey?

"The best case scenario is that the sell off in equity markets takes place in slow motion. Big players may choose to exit their positions in a classical "Distribution Process" so that they can obtain reasonable price for their huge long positions.

So you may witness very high volatility with spurts of buying interest emerging and trying to draw eternal bulls into a bull trap. That is the shade of grey for you!. Keep out of markets and watch it from sidelines till dust settles down. I will keep you posted and immediately inform you as and when that happens. Be safe, be happy - adopt a no-trade strategy for the moment!!!"

Please don't get trapped!!